Donald Trump assumed the presidency of the United States for a second term in January 2025. What to expect from the relationship between the United States and Brazil—two of the Americas’ largest economies and geopolitical players, in the next four years? With both nations facing complex domestic challenges and shifting global dynamics, the future of their bilateral relationship is poised to evolve in significant ways.
Under Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021), US-Brazil relations were largely defined by mutual interests, particularly in trade, security, and a shared skepticism toward leftist ideologies. President Jair Bolsonaro, who was in power in Brazil during much of Trump’s term, was seen as an ideological ally to the American president, with both leaders embracing conservative populism, deregulation, and anti-globalization stances. Bolsonaro frequently praised Trump for his tough stance on China and his “America First” policies.
Now, with Bolsonaro out of office and Brazil under the leadership of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (who took office in 2023), the relationship between the two nations has been tempered by more traditional diplomatic approaches. However, Trump’s return to power is likely to shift the diplomatic dynamic back to a more transactional approach—especially when it comes to trade.
Trump, known for his emphasis on “fair” trade deals, may seek to renegotiate or enhance existing trade agreements with Brazil, particularly in sectors like agriculture, energy, and mining, where Brazil is a global leader. Brazil’s vast natural resources, including soybeans, iron ore, and oil, will continue to make it a valuable partner for the United States, despite ideological differences with Lula’s government.
Lula wishes Trump success, calls for progress in partnerships
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva issued an official statement congratulating US President Donald Trump.
“On behalf of the Brazilian government, I extend my congratulations to President Donald Trump on his inauguration. Relations between Brazil and the United States are rooted in a long history of cooperation, mutual respect, and enduring friendship,” said Lula. The Brazilian president also emphasized the “strong” bilateral ties across various sectors, reaffirmed Brazil’s commitment to ongoing partnerships, and wished Trump success in his term.
“Our nations share strong bonds across various fields, including trade, science, education, and culture. I am confident that we can continue advancing these and other partnerships. I wish President Trump a successful term that promotes the prosperity and well-being of the American people while contributing to a more just and peaceful world,” he added.
Earlier, during the opening of a ministerial meeting in Brasília, Lula remarked on Trump’s inauguration, expressing his hope for maintaining strong relations with the Trump administration.
“Some say that Trump’s election could pose challenges to global democracy. However, Trump was elected to govern the United States. As Brazil’s president, I hope he has a fruitful term, promoting progress for both Brazilians and Americans while keeping the US as Brazil’s historic partner,” Lula stated.
Economic Relations
Brazil is the world’s eighth-largest economy, and the United States is Brazil’s second-largest trading partner. In 2023, U.S. exports of goods and services to Brazil were $37.9 billion, down 26 percent from 2022, and imports from Brazil were $36.9 billion, down 2 percent from 2022. This represents a total trade value of $74.8 billion in 2023. In 2023, exports to Brazil accounted for 2.3 percent of total U.S. exports, and imports from Brazil accounted for 1.2 percent of total U.S. imports. The United States purchased a record $29.9 billion in manufactured products from Brazil in 2023, accounting for 81 percent of total U.S. imports from Brazil, reaffirming the United States as the top destination for Brazilian value-added goods.
Environmental Policies and Tensions Over Climate Change
One of the most significant areas of divergence between the US and Brazil under Trump’s return could be the environment. During his first term, Trump was heavily criticized for rolling back environmental regulations, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, and championing policies that prioritized economic growth over environmental concerns. In his first day in office, Trump again withdrawn the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, showing that his positions in relation to the environment has not changed.
Brazil, under both Bolsonaro and now Lula, has faced international scrutiny for deforestation in the Amazon, one of the world’s most vital ecosystems. While Lula has committed to tackling deforestation and revitalizing Brazil’s environmental policies, Trump’s track record on climate change suggests that he may take a less cooperative approach, emphasizing economic growth over international environmental standards.
Brazil’s commitment to protecting the Amazon could lead to diplomatic friction if Trump seeks to diminish the role of environmental concerns in US foreign policy. However, both countries may find common ground on promoting green technologies, especially in the context of energy markets and the emerging global competition for leadership in renewable energy.
Diplomatic Relations
Trump’s return to the White House will likely reignite some of the cultural and ideological differences that defined US-Brazil relations during his first term. With the Biden administration’s emphasis on human rights, democracy, and social justice, Trump’s policies are expected to take a more nationalist and populist direction once again—potentially alienating certain sectors of Brazilian society, particularly those who view Trump’s rhetoric as divisive or harmful to global cooperation.
The coming years will test the resiliency of US-Brazil relations as Trump returns to power, bringing with him a blend of aggressive foreign policy, nationalistic economic strategies, and a starkly different approach to global diplomacy. While trade and security concerns will remain central to the bilateral agenda, environmental issues, human rights, and ideological differences may provide significant points of tension.
Ultimately, the success of the relationship will depend on the ability of both nations to prioritize mutual interests while navigating the broader geopolitical shifts that will continue to shape the global landscape in the 2020s. As the US and Brazil continue to evolve politically, their partnership will likely remain one of both opportunity and challenge in the years to come.
Sources: Agência Brasil & U.S. Embassy